With winds expected to die down, firefighters more likely to contain and eventually put out the ongoing fires.
With winds expected to die down, firefighters more likely to contain and eventually put out the ongoing fires.
A dry winter and early spring have left the U.S. Southwest in need of moisture, but AccuWeather forecasters say none is on the horizon.
“This does not bode well for a region facing levels of extreme and exceptional drought,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer said.
The United States Drought Monitor has nearly the entire region categorized in some level of drought. New Mexico and West Texas are where the largest expanse of extreme and exceptional drought is located, the worst drought levels on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale.
The drought has been exacerbated by above-normal temperatures and consistently windy days. This has accelerated the process of drying out what little moisture is in the ground and vegetation.
The dry conditions have already contributed to multiple fires. One of the most notable blazes is the Tunnel Fire to the northeast of Flagstaff, Ariz. This area has hardly had any precipitation in April.
“Flagstaff has only observed 2% of its normal precipitation this month, with 0.02 of an inch recorded compared to the normal of 0.89 of an inch,” said Smithmyer.
For the year, only 3.01 inches of rain and melted snow have fallen in Flagstaff, a far cry from the 6.99 inches that typically fall from January through April. Snowfall for the entire winter has been just 56.2 inches in Flagstaff, well shy of the 89.0 inches that normally fall through the end of April.
The dryness, warmth and bouts of wind have made it difficult for firefighters to gain the upper hand on the Tunnel Fire, which began on April 17. The blaze has burned well over 10,000 acres and destroyed at least two dozen structures.
“The Tunnel Fire has nearly reached 20,000 acres and is roughly 43% contained,” said Smithmyer.
Another fire that has gained attention in Arizona is the Crooks Fire, located southwest of the Tunnel Fire. The Crooks Fire is not as large but is also less contained.
“The Crooks Fire is at almost 10,000 acres and is just 23% contained,” noted Smithmyer.
There are multiple other fires burning in the region, with more than half a dozen in New Mexico alone.
There are also two fires burning in the panhandle of Texas. While no rain will fall through at least the first week of May in Arizona and New Mexico, slightly better news may be in the offing for Texas.
As a disturbance in the jet stream moves by just to the north this coming Sunday, thunderstorms with heavy rain may fall in the Texas Panhandle. However, severe weather may also be a concern, and some thunderstorms may contain more lightning than rain, which will elevate the risk of igniting new fires.
Although no rain is expected farther west, it appears that winds next week will not be as gusty as recently. Therefore, while new fires can still start given the dry conditions, they are likely to spread less rapidly, and firefighters may be able to gain more of an upper hand on the ongoing fires.
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Edited by Richard Pretorius and Matthew B. Hall
