Philippines’ Poorest Region Plots New Future

PHILIPPINES — A new government in the Philippines’ poorest region faces major recent challenges including handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, resolving decades of civil war, and increasing economic prosperity for citizens

Three years after one of its largest cities was ravaged by terrorists, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) is working to begin a new chapter. Around the globe, fumbled responses to COVID-19 have seen citizens lose faith in government. Yet, the crisis has given the BARMM government an opportunity to legitimize itself.

 “For too long, all the people of Bangsamoro have not been able to shape their own destiny. The BARMM (government) offers a new opportunity for the region, even if the coronavirus has proven to be a trial by fire,” said Muedzul Lail Tan Kiram, the sultan of Sulu. 

BARMM’s primary focus has been economic development. This past summer, however, the provisional parliament approved a new economic development plan for the region. 

BARMM was established last year as part of a peace agreement meant to end decades of insurgency and ineffective regional government. The region includes Mindanao, the largest island in the Philippines. As the name of the region suggests, the majority of its 4.2 million people are Muslim. For centuries, the region was ruled by various monarchies until Spanish and British imperial ambitions collided.

In the late 1960s, the government of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos began secretly training soldiers for clandestine action against Malaysia in support of a border conflict. Following a change of heart by the Philippines government, much of that unit was killed in the Jabidah massacre of 1968. This sparked a nationalist insurgency, which lasted in one form or another until last year. More than 120,000 lives were lost in nearly half a century of conflict that symbolically ended when President Rodrigo Duterte recognized Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a rebel group, as interim chief minister of Bangsamoro’s interim government last year.                       

“Running a government is thrice more difficult than running a revolution,” Ebrahim said in an interview last year. His government has put much faith in the region’s first development plan. The region offers opportunities for investors in agriculture and extractive industries, as highlighted in the plan. 

Bangsamoro’s mineral resources are under-explored, though some estimates of potential oil reserves would put it on par with some OPEC members. The region is also home to sizable coal reserves but, with both hydrocarbons considered environmentally unsound, the development plan instead focuses on and agriculture. Such opportunities include seaweed production and fishing. On land, exotic crops like lanzones, marang, coconuts, coffee, durian, and dozens of others are grown commercially.   

“The region is still rife with instability generated by lingering socioeconomic issues, ethnic and clan clashes, as well as by other rebel groups, many of which swore allegiance to the Islamic State,” said Enrico Cau, a scholar with the Center for Politics and International Affairs in the Philippines. 

The region’s recent history offers a cautionary tale. ISIS-aligned forces stormed the normally peaceful town of Marawi in May 2017. The next few months saw some of the most intense urban combat in Southeast Asia since the 1968 Battle of Hue during the Vietnam War. Within three months, there were fewer than 40 terrorists dug in among the urban rubble, but the battle dragged on.                                

The Filipino armed forces received international aid during the battle, including input from U.S. special forces advisers and intelligence support from Israel and Australia. China and Russia also made conventional arms deliveries to the country during the siege. Although the guns have fallen silent, some 1.1 million people were displaced as a consequence of the battle and thousands continue to live in temporary shelters. Filipino combat engineers were deployed this summer to help build new permanent shelters for the 126,835 individuals who, according to the United Nations, are still displaced. 

Another challenge is the demobilization of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s 40,000 fighters. ISIS militants have launched strikes against the rebel group. Here the BARMM has a clear plan. Some 150,000 Filipino Pesos in cash assistance will be handed to former fighters, as well as health education and other benefits. Some rebel camps will be recognized as new rural communities. The future trends will be defined by how the BARMM develops, how the central government in Manila handles the South, and how well Mindanao as a region manages to develop and produce socioeconomic stability, said Cau.               

The government’s plan calls for a reduction of the poverty rate in the region to 49.6% by 2022, a goal that experts say may well be achievable even amid the pandemic. Indeed, the forming of BARMM has been met with much optimism. The town of Cotabato City voted to join the region despite previously avoiding association with the Bangsamoro region. For many in the war-torn region the Bangsamoro government doesn’t need to be perfect — it just needs to avoid massive mistakes. The Philippines more generally is projected to be the world’s 16th-largest economy by 2050, according to HSBC. As the fishermen of the Sea of Sulu have long known, a rising tide will lift all boats.

Edited by Ron Panarotti and Blake French.

(Edited by Ronald Matthew Panarotti and Blake French)