A significant influx of moisture brought on by Hurricane Kay is positioned in the East Pacific
A significant influx of moisture brought on by Hurricane Kay is positioned in the East Pacific
A significant influx of moisture brought on by Hurricane Kay is positioned in the East Pacific. Close to the coast of Baja California, Mexico, a considerable flooding threat is anticipated to emerge throughout the parched southwestern United States.
While Kay won’t make landfall in the United States, it will nonetheless make an abnormally near approach to the Golden State and bring some much-needed relief from the recent excessive heat wave. Southern California is predicted to experience some of the worst floods.
Rounds of rain and wind are forecast to pound portions of Mexico and the United States as Kay churns near the Baja California coast through Friday.
As of Thursday morning, Kay remained a large storm that had sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h), making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and was moving north-northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center.
Across Mexico, hurricane warnings were in effect from north of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas on Thursday, and a hurricane watch was in effect for Purerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos.
As Kay continues to move northward over the next couple of days, generally paralleling the Baja coast, AccuWeather meteorologists expect Kay to make landfall over the Vizcaino Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday evening before returning back to the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Impacts from Kay will extend from the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico up into parts of the southwestern U.S.
As Kay continued to churn northward, the impacts from the tropical system were predicted to be significant in parts of the U.S., specifically Southern California.
On Thursday, some outer bands from Kay were already sweeping across southern portions of the Golden State. As Kay continues to move northward, rain is likely to become more widespread.
The heaviest rain is likely to center on Southern California.
“Despite the loss of wind intensity as Kay moves northward, the impacts to California will be notable,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches of rain are expected across Southern California, including in cities such as San Diego and Los Angeles. Both cities, and many others across the area, average less than a quarter of an inch of rain over the entire month of September.
Based on the current AccuWeather forecast, Kay’s approach toward California will be the closest that any tropical storm has gotten to Los Angeles since a storm named Hyacinth in 1972, according to AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell.
Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common in the mountains of Southern California, but some localized amounts as high as 8 inches will be possible. An AccuWeather StormMax™ of 10 inches is forecast in some very localized areas.
The strongest wind gusts in the United States from Kay are also expected to be in the higher elevations of Southern California. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will be possible, especially in the mountains, AccuWeather forecasters say.
The thunderstorms and gusty winds pushing into the region could bring additional risks.
“Gusty winds could also fuel an elevated fire threat, based on how dry it has been across the region,” explained Buckingham.
More than 97 percent of the state of California is experiencing moderate drought conditions or worse. according to the latest update by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The addition of strong winds can fan any ongoing wildfires or any new fires that spark.
The wave of wet weather and increased moisture should eventually bring some relief to drought and assist with wildfire efforts. The Hemet, California area, which is about two hours east of Los Angeles and where the Fairview Fire has been burning since earlier this week, is forecast to receive some rain from Kay.
The wet weather from Kay also comes on the heels of an unprecedented heat wave. Extreme temperatures across the southwestern U.S. crushed long-standing records and incited record-setting energy demand in California.
Kay strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane (minimum sustained winds of 74 mph) on Monday as it paralleled the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico. Portions of the peninsula were being hit with heavy, tropical rainfall through the middle of the week.
As Kay continues to approach landfall, likely between the towns of Bahia Tortugas and Bahia Asuncion, on Thursday evening, local time, wind gust observations on land are likely to increase. Dangerous storm surge may occur in the area near and just south of where Kay makes landfall.
Widespread wind gusts of 60-80 mph (100-130 km/h) are expected on the western shores of the Baja Peninsula and the highest wind gusts are likely where Kay makes landfall on the Vizcaino Peninsula.
“Hurricane Kay is a large storm. Continued interaction with land and northward track into cooler waters will cause Kay to gradually lose wind intensity over the coming days,” said Buckingham. Despite this, wind gusts of as much as 60 mph can extend northward to the Mexico-California border.
Even as Kay begins to lose wind intensity, the dangerous rainfall impacts are expected to continue.
Flooding rainfall will deluge the peninsula with widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches. Locations between the towns of Loreto to San Felipe could see as much as 8-16 inches of rain.
The higher elevations may be most susceptible to the higher rainfall totals, including the AccuWeather Local Storm Max™ of 20 inches (500 mm). This immense amount of rain could cause mudslides and completely cut off some more remote towns.
Conditions could improve in Baja California Sur by Friday, but it won’t be until Kay starts to turn westward late in the weekend that much of Baja California will begin to experience lesser impacts from Kay. Dangerous seas and rip currents are likely to persist for western-facing shores into early next week.
Produced in association with AccuWeather.
